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29.04.2014 14:39:46

Quickview: UK growth accelerates - comments from European Economist Azad Zangana on today’s UK GDP announcement

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April 2014

 

The latest preliminary estimate of UK GDP shows economic growth accelerated from 0.7% growth in the last three months of 2013 to 0.8% in the first quarter - a strong and promising start to 2014, but the estimate has fallen short of the City's consensus estimate of 0.9%.

Quarterly year-on-year growth is now up to 3.1% - the fastest rate of annual growth since the fourth quarter of 2007. The level of GDP is now just 0.6% below its previous peak in Q1 2008.

Within the details, the services sectors were the main drivers of the headline figures, growing by 0.9% on the quarter. The production industries grew by a solid 0.8%, but the construction sector only managed 0.3% while the small agricultural sector declined by 0.7%. The latter two were hit by the flooding in February, but should bounce back in the near future.

Overall, these are good results for the UK economy and they confirm that the UK is one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world. Looking ahead, we expect the economy to maintain a strong pace of growth, driven by loose credit conditions, low interest rates, and easing fiscal austerity. The rebound in the housing market is helping to boost household spending, while companies appear to be gaining in confidence and so are starting to increase levels of investment.

Taken together with the recent good news in the labour market, we could see the more hawkish members on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee suddenly find their voices, and begin to talk about raising interest rates. We continue to expect no change in interest rates this year; however, if the momentum in activity continues at this pace, there is a big risk the first interest rate rise comes in 2015.

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Enjoy reading. Kind regards,
Schroders Switzerland

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Important Information:
The views and opinions contained herein are those of  Azad Zangana, Schroders and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Issued in April 2014 by Schroder Investments Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registered No: 2015527 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
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