Copper price sets fresh US record as tariff-driven hoarding meets shrinking supply

Copper climbed to a fresh all-time high in New York on Wednesday, as bets on US import tariffs kept pulling metal into the country while the supply picture outside the United States continued to deteriorate.Copper for September delivery touched $6.7045 per pound ($14,781 per tonne) on the Comex, surpassing the previous intraday peak of $6.69 set in mid-May. The most-active contract was trading at $6.6825 in late morning, up 0.6% compared to Tuesday’s settlement, bringing gains in New York this year to about 17%.In London, copper touched $14,050 a tonne on Wednesday morning after topping $14,000 on Tuesday for the first time in two months, closing in on January’s record $14,500. The LME market has flipped into backwardation, with cash copper commanding a premium of more than $100 over three-month metal, the widest since January, while New York trades some $640 a tonne above London after the premium averaged more than $350 in July.Click on chart for live prices.Washington’s copper tariff decision is now more than a month overdue. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s June 30 deadline to recommend whether refined copper imports should face phased duties, starting at 15% in January 2027 and rising to 30% the following year, passed without an announcement. The administration is also weighing extending the existing 50% tariffs on semi-finished products to raw metal, and on Tuesday the Commerce Department sought comments on adding 14 more product categories, including electric conductor cables, to its Section 232 duties.Traders are not waiting. More than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at US ports in July, the largest monthly inflow since IHS Markit records began in 2014. Comex inventories are up more than 40% this year to record levels and the total US hoard, including private storage at ports, is estimated at well above 1 million tonnes.“The tariff arbitrage is ruling the roost over demand growth,” said Michael Cuoco, head of metals at StoneX Financial.The rally is unfolding as hopes build for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US, Iran and Oman are preparing a 60-day shipping arrangement, and President Trump told reporters a deal “could happen. Tomorrow or the next day.” The prospect of de-escalation lifted risk assets broadly, softening inflation fears and prompting traders to pare bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes, a tailwind for growth-sensitive metals.Supply squeezeAny relief will come too late for parts of the copper supply chain. The strait’s closure knocked out around half of seaborne sulphur shipments from the Gulf, and combined with China’s export ban running to December, has stripped roughly a quarter of global supplies of sulphuric acid, used in the SX-EW process that accounts for more than 15% of world copper output. The DRC produces some 1.5 million tonnes of SX-EW copper a year, with Chile close behind at about 1.2 million tonnes, and some operations are down to 30 to 60 days of acid inventory.In Chile, Codelco this week paused the Andes Norte expansion at El Teniente, the world’s biggest underground copper mine, after studies identified “an emerging seismic phenomenon with characteristics different from the risks that have historically been known and managed in the operation.” The halt comes a year after a rock burst killed six workers at the mine, and keeps El Teniente output around 300,000 tonnes a year, well below pre-accident levels. Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said last week there is “no possibility” of the state miner reaching its 1.7 million tonne annual production target within four to five years.Miners’ earnings roll inCopper equities rode the move higher. Glencore, reporting first-half results on Wednesday, said adjusted EBITDA jumped 86% to $10.1 billion as war-driven trading profits and a 15% rise in copper output flowed through. The company, which is targeting 1 million tonnes of annualized copper production by the end of 2028, confirmed a secondary Sydney listing for October, and its US-traded shares added 3%.Anglo American, whose chief executive Duncan Wanblad will lead the combined group once its $53 billion tie-up with Teck Resources closes, rose 1.7% in New York, while Antofagasta consolidated Tuesday’s near 7% surge in London. BHP (up 2%) and Rio Tinto (up 2.3%) are meanwhile morphing into copper plays as iron ore fades, although BHP has flagged lower Chilean output next year. Freeport-McMoRan gained 3.3%, First Quantum Minerals 3.2%, Ivanhoe Mines 2.9%, Southern Copper 2.4% and Teck 1.7%.Copper is now up more than 50% over the past year, with BMI among forecasters arguing structural deficits will take prices higher still into the next decade.(With files from Bloomberg)Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com