Hashdex: Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle dead?

One of the questions many investors are grappling with is what the recent volatility means for the crypto investment thesis in 2026. Historically, the market has followed a four-year cycle - but is that pattern repeating?

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
- Mark Twain

We haven't seen a blow-off top in the last 12 months. Prices rose - Bitcoin and NCI more than doubled - but relative to 2021 highs, crypto is up only ~60%. This wasn't the speculative mania of previous cycles.

What changed? Institutions. While retail investors take profits anticipating a correction, institutional allocators are increasing exposure at record pace. They're no longer asking if crypto deserves portfolio space - they're asking how to implement.

BULL CASE

A path to $300,000 this cycle is mathematically consistent with current flow dynamics - not a prediction, but a demonstration that it's within the realm of possibility.

Our guidance remains the same: maintain modest allocation, long-term horizon, and disciplined rebalancing. The four-year cycle may be ending or just changing shape - but the fundamentals remain.

Read the full CIO Notes

The Great Reset

November will be remembered as one of the most challenging months for crypto in over three years. The NCI fell 18.02%, Bitcoin dropped 16.93%, and Ethereum declined 22.18%. Spot ETFs recorded unprecedented outflows: $3.79B from BTC ETFs.

Despite the severity, the infrastructure remains intact. Exchange reserves fell to their lowest level since 2018, signaling accumulation by conviction holders.

Read the full Monthly Letter