Uranium demand for nuclear power set to surge nearly 30% by 2030 - report

Global uranium demand is expected to soar as nuclear power cements its role in the clean energy transition, according to the World Nuclear Association’s (WNA) biennial Nuclear Fuel Report released Friday.The report forecasts uranium demand for nuclear reactors will climb 28% by 2030, reaching nearly 87,000 metric tons annually, before more than doubling to over 150,000 metric tons by 2040. That compares to about 67,000 tons consumed in 2024.The growth is tied to a rapid buildout of nuclear power capacity worldwide. Current global nuclear capacity of 398 gigawatts electric (GWe), with another 71 GWe under construction, is projected to surge by 13% by 2030 and by nearly 87% to 746 GWe by 2040.“The shift reflects governments leaning more heavily on nuclear power to meet energy security goals and net-zero carbon targets,” the WNA said.Scenarios for growthThe WNA examined three scenarios:Reference Scenario – Based on existing government and utility plans, nuclear capacity rises from 372 GWe in 2024 to 686 GWe by 2040.Upper Scenario – Under more favorable policies, capacity could reach 966 GWe.Lower Scenario – If implementation lags, capacity would still grow to 582 GWe.By 2040, demand could range from 107,000 tU in the Lower Scenario to over 204,000 tU in the Upper Scenario.While current uranium mine supply—bolstered by a 22% increase in production between 2022 and 2024 to 60,213 tons—is sufficient in the short term, the WNA warned of looming deficits.After 2030, output from existing mines is forecast to halve, creating a pressing need for new mines and restarts of idle operations. With it taking 10 to 20 years to develop new uranium projects, the association stressed the importance of accelerated investment now to avoid disruptions.“Mine supply is adequate in the short term, but shortfalls could occur after 2030,” the report noted.BMO Capital Markets noted that the WNA’s uranium demand growth forecast has been raised to a 5.3% CAGR through 2040, up from 4.1% previously and well above the bank’s own estimate of ~3.6%. Analysts added that financing solutions are gaining attention as the industry confronts the challenge of tripling nuclear capacity by 2050. “Recent production challenges highlight supply side risk, which could see some improvement in spot market and contracting volumes into year-end as we enter this typically seasonally stronger period of the year,” BMO concluded.Market dynamics and technology shiftsAccording to the WNA, geopolitical tensions—particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—have disrupted regional enrichment markets, driving demand for expanded enrichment capacity.Meanwhile, small modular reactors (SMRs) are also expected to contribute to the growth trajectory, offering cheaper, faster-to-build nuclear options that could expand nuclear deployment beyond traditional large-scale plants.The WNA also highlighted that several countries with phase-out or moratorium policies on nuclear energy are now revisiting those stances amid energy security concerns and decarbonization commitments.The association concluded that the coming decade will be decisive: unless new uranium projects are advanced now, the sector risks significant supply crunches just as nuclear power demand accelerates.Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com