U.S. Households' Longer Term Inflation Expectations Rise: NY Fed Survey

(RTTNews) - American households' expectations of inflation in five years increased in January, while their spending growth hopes fell to the lowest level in four years, results of a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed on Monday.

The one-year and three-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0 percent, while the five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 3.0 percent in January, the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed.

The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads carried out by NielsenIQ on behalf of the NY Fed. House price growth expectations edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.2 percent.

Median household spending growth expectations decreased 0.4 percentage points to 4.4 percent, which was the lowest since January 2021, the survey revealed. The rate remained above pre-pandemic levels.

Households' income growth expectations grew by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 percent in January.

The NY Fed survey showed that expectations for future credit availability improved, while year-ahead expectations about households' financial situations deteriorated.

Unemployment expectations, which is the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, fell by 0.6 percentage points to 34.0 percent, the lowest reading since July 2021. Meanwhile, the perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months rose by 2.3 percentage points to 14.2 percent.

The one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations grew by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 percent.